Michael Eisner Gets Lucky (Or: Every Hurricane Has a Silver Lining)

It seems highly likely that Disney's theme park attendance will be down for this quarter (which lasts from July 1st through the end of September).  MiceAge has been reporting that Disney's California Adventure has gotten little if any attendance bounce from their new Tower of Terror Lite, while Disneyland itself appears to have had its lowest summer attendance in years.  Meanwhile, on the other coast Walt Disney World had to offer some pretty deep discounts on hotel packages:  special deals for Florida residents and a 7-days-for-the-price-of-5 deal for non-residents.

But most investors and casual observers won't get to hear some of the big reasons for this soft attendance, reasons like the fact while very little new gets added to the Disney theme parks, the prices at Disneyland and Walt Disney World reach ever higher.  Heck, Disneyland hasn't had a new "E-ticket" ride since Indiana Jones opened nine years ago, and WDW's Magic Kingdom hasn't had one since Splash Mountain in 1992!!  Meanwhile, the daily admission price for Disneyland has gone up from $33 a day to a hair under $50 - just over 50% and double the rate of inflation since then.

So why won't the general public hear it this way?  Because the quarterly earnings release will say something like "Walt Disney World's attendance was negatively impacted by hurricanes Charley and Frances."  Which is, of course, true - but overly simplistic.  Mind you, it doesn't explain why attendance was soft for two months before that, but the news media will report Disney's explanation without further digging and that will be that.

Once again, Michael Eisner will have dodged a bullet and not have to explain why the theme parks aren't doing as well as they should be.  Of course, he won't able to count on a once-every-50-years natural disaster as the reason next time things fall short at the parks, but I'm sure he'll come up with something that deflects the blame from his management team, and his strategy, and himself.  He always does.