Thursday, September 23, 2004

Some Quick Updates

Just a few quick updates to some prior Blog posts today.  I promise I'll have a new rant, er, posting soon.

First, as for Michael Eisner's 2006 resignation, he has now stated in the current issue Fortune magazine interview that, "I have not asked the board to stay on the board or be chairman after the end of my contract.  My assumption is that I would not continue on the board or as chairman.  Clearly I'm not the type to retire, particularly after I've heard all those lectures from medical experts about how an active mind is good for the body.  But as far as continuing on the board or as chairman, it's just not in my mind at this time."

Does that mean he's not going to be Chairman of the Board after retiring as CEO?   His statement is certainly isn't a flat-out "No".  And he conspicuously does not say that he'd turn down a board seat if asked. Michael apparently plans to continue working - but where and as what?  I mean, where would you go after being CEO of Disney?  Boards of other companies, I would guess.  But if so, then why not on the Disney board as well?

So I guess I'm still skeptical.  Michael's statement leaves a lot of wiggle room for him to decide later that he wants a seat on the board or for the board to ask him to stay on. I still doubt that Michael Eisner intends to end his career at Disney in 2006.


Second, on the "Essence" of Attractions and "core values" of each land, it occurs to me that this is the reason why Disney's California Adventure feels so dead - there's no "core value" to the so-called "lands" in DCA.

Think about it: does any land in DCA evoke a theme, feeling, or emotion that you can sum up in a word or two?  Something simple yet powerful that ties together everything in that land?  Not for me.

(And, no, "tacky", "cheesy", or "cheap" for Paradise Pier doesn't come count.  Sorry.)

DCA's "lands" look nice, but theming-wise or emotion-wise they stir up nothing for me.  It's kind of like a movie backlot version of a city:  it looks like a city - and maybe even cleaner and shinier - but it's also hollow, empty and soulless.  Which pretty much sums up my feelings about DCA.

Friday, September 10, 2004

The End of Eisner's Ride? Don't Bet on It.

I woke up and saw on this morning's front page of The Wall Street Journal:  "Disney's Eisner Will Quit in 2006 After Surviving Bruising Battles".  No, I wasn't dreaming.  Michael Eisner has announced his intention to step down as Disney's CEO when his current employment contract ends in 2006.

Are you letting out a cheer?  Popping those champagne corks?  Not so fast, Bub!  Do you really think this will be the last we hear of Michael Eisner?

Note that Michael's letter to the Board says very specifically that he will "retire from my role as Chief Executive Officer" on September 30, 2006.  It doesn't say he intends to retire completely or that he intends to have no role in The Walt Disney Company going forward.  Here's what I think:  Michael will step down as CEO, but he instead will take over as the Chairman of the Board, where he will still exert a great deal of power over the company and will be able to pull the puppet strings on his hand-picked successor, Robert Iger.

Be honest:  Did you really think Michael Eisner would go this easily?  I doubt we've seen the last of him yet.

Tuesday, September 07, 2004

Michael Eisner Gets Lucky (Or: Every Hurricane Has a Silver Lining)

It seems highly likely that Disney's theme park attendance will be down for this quarter (which lasts from July 1st through the end of September).  MiceAge has been reporting that Disney's California Adventure has gotten little if any attendance bounce from their new Tower of Terror Lite, while Disneyland itself appears to have had its lowest summer attendance in years.  Meanwhile, on the other coast Walt Disney World had to offer some pretty deep discounts on hotel packages:  special deals for Florida residents and a 7-days-for-the-price-of-5 deal for non-residents.

But most investors and casual observers won't get to hear some of the big reasons for this soft attendance, reasons like the fact while very little new gets added to the Disney theme parks, the prices at Disneyland and Walt Disney World reach ever higher.  Heck, Disneyland hasn't had a new "E-ticket" ride since Indiana Jones opened nine years ago, and WDW's Magic Kingdom hasn't had one since Splash Mountain in 1992!!  Meanwhile, the daily admission price for Disneyland has gone up from $33 a day to a hair under $50 - just over 50% and double the rate of inflation since then.

So why won't the general public hear it this way?  Because the quarterly earnings release will say something like "Walt Disney World's attendance was negatively impacted by hurricanes Charley and Frances."  Which is, of course, true - but overly simplistic.  Mind you, it doesn't explain why attendance was soft for two months before that, but the news media will report Disney's explanation without further digging and that will be that.

Once again, Michael Eisner will have dodged a bullet and not have to explain why the theme parks aren't doing as well as they should be.  Of course, he won't able to count on a once-every-50-years natural disaster as the reason next time things fall short at the parks, but I'm sure he'll come up with something that deflects the blame from his management team, and his strategy, and himself.  He always does.

Sunday, September 05, 2004

Tony Baxter is Wrong - Sort of.

Senior Imagineer Tony Baxter has been in the Internet Disney news a lot lately.  MousePlanet's David Koenig recently had an interesting quote from Tony about replacing older attractions with new ones: What you try to do is understand what was special about the attraction.  Sometimes there's not much, like the Motor Boats, other than a place where you go to make out or to be away from your parents.  But you try to capture that in what you replace it with, and make sure the new attraction has all that.” So, the rather trippy journey of Adventure Through Inner Space is replaced by the slightly surreal journey of Star Tours.  Or, as Baxter said, “Star Tours is an adventure through outer space that takes people somewhere they dreamed they'd never get to go.  Monsanto did that in a psychedelic way that was perfect for my generation, growing up in the '60s.”

Not that Star Tours is a bad attraction, but this concept of Tony's strikes me as being horribly wrong.  If you're stuck trying to keep the essence of what came before when you create a new attraction, you're limiting yourself - and the park.  Stick with this principle, and Disneyland won't be able to grow and change, and it will stifle the ability to make big new innovations.  Sure, you might be able to make small improvements - for example, changing the PeopleMover into the Rocket Rods - but being stuck with having to put some kind of transit-ride in that spot limits what you can come up with.  Perhaps there's a better, more innovative non-transit ride that could go there instead.  But sticking to this “essence” principle rules it out.

(Also, of course, the budget limitations that WDI has been forced to swallow haven't helped innovation much lately either.)

This “essence” philosophy might explain why Tony Baxter seems to be losing influence at Disney (see Al Lutz's recent update on MiceAge for a recent example of this).  I'm sure there are senior executives at WDI, at the Resorts and in the Disney Corporate HQ who don't get this “essence” thing - that is, assuming in the first place that they even get why Disney theme parks are different from everything else out there.  These execs probably see Tony as being stubborn towards “synergistic” changes (like putting Pooh in Critter Country or Dumbo-like Flying Carpets in WDW's Adventureland -yuck!) or just plain uncooperative.  And, politically, that's very bad - and perhaps why less imaginative but more cooperative people are moved up the corporate ladder past him.

(And, personally, I'm bothered by all the homages to the past and other in-jokes that Tony and his teams have added - especially in the Disneyland's “New Tomorrowland”.  For example, the new Moonliner, the references to Horizons and Carousel of Progress in Innoventions, and especially the “Inner Space” parody telephones on Innoventions upper outside balcony.  Granted, these are mostly small things cost-wise, but what a waste! A select few people get the reference, but millions don't.  I'm certain they could have instead created small things that everyone - not just Disneyland geeks - could enjoy.)

Yet through all this I think I can see the appeal of keeping the essence of old attractions when creating the new ones:  if Disneyland “works” as whole before a change - in that it has the right feel and appeal to the millions of paying visitors - then keeping the essence of one attraction location the same should keep the essence and feel of the entire park the same as well.  In other words, the idea is that you're not risking breaking the entire system by substituting one piece with a new but highly compatible replacement.  Unfortunately, times, technology and most importantly attitudes change, and you have to keep up with those changes.  I mean, if you took a 1950's Chevrolet sedan and keep upgrading the engine, the seats, the fenders, etc.  for 50 years but tried to keep the “feel” of a 50's sedan, you wouldn't have a modern car that could compete with the today's new vehicles.  And the same goes for a theme park.

So while I think his “essence philosophy” is wrong, Tony is actually pretty close to being right.  I think that both Tony and I (and millions of Disneyland fans, for that matter) would agree that we'd like to keep the feel and appeal of Disneyland the same as it has always been.  But rather than replacing older rides with similar new ones, what really is needed is to create new attractions that fit the current “flavor” of the land - that is, attractions that fit today's visitors' interpretation of a land's “theme”.  In my definition, “theming” is more than just emphasis on the small details, but making the entire land create a mood, an atmosphere, even an emotion.

Or to put this in an academic way, it's how the excellent book Built to Last explains why some companies (including Disney, by the way) have managed to stay great for decades.  You figure out what the “core values” are for the company, and then be prepared to change everything else as times and business conditions change.  In this way, you stay current and competitive, but still stand for the same key things that made you a success in the past.  And I think the same can go for theme parks too.  If you keep within the “core values” for a land (for example, “technology” and “the promise of a better tomorrow” for Tomorrowland, “Patriotism” and “Nostaglia” for Main Street, “Exploration”, “Adventure” and “Exoticness” for Adventureland), you can change or add just about anything and still successfully keep the feel of that land.

And thus old attractions can be replaced by great new attractions without having to be “pin-compatible” - it just takes some imagination, a decent budget, and above all, a real understanding of the “core value” theme of that land.